The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate report was released in early December.
According to the report, global wheat production for 2016-2017 increased by 6.5 million tons, driven by increased production in Australia (4.7 million tons), China (0.9 million tons), and the EU and Brazil (0.4 million tons each). Yields in Australia reached a new record, up 18 percent from the previous record. Global wheat exports were also raised in December by 2.6 million tons; Australia’s increased exports outweighed lower exports from Russia. Total wheat consumption rose due to higher food and feed use, and ending stocks remain at record levels.
Global coarse grain production was also raised in December to 1,329.4 million tons, with a large part of the increase stemming from corn. Corn production rose in both China and Brazil; if expectations are realized in Brazil, the 2016-2017 corn crop will reach record levels. Corn production also increased for Russia, Canada, and Indonesia. In the latter country, the increased production is being driven by a government initiative to expand corn production on previously idle land. Brazil and Russia are expected to have higher corn exports, while Vietnam, Iran, Taiwan, Colombia, and Egypt are projected to increase their corn imports. Canada, the EU, and Indonesia, on the other hand, are expected to decrease their imports. Global corn ending stocks rose 4.1 million tons in December, with the largest increase in stocks predicted for China, Vietnam, Brazil, and Russia.
Global soybean production also rose in December, reaching 338 million tons. This increase is being driven by higher projected yields in India and Canada. Canada is also expected to see higher soybean exports, offsetting a reduction in exports from Argentina. Soybean imports are expected to rise in the EU. Global oilseed ending stocks will increase to 94.6 million tons, driven by large increases in soybean stocks in Argentina and India.
Following an opposite trend, global rice production fell by 2.3 million tons in December based on reduced production prospects in China and the Philippines. Global rice exports are also predicted by fall by 0.3 million tons, with total global use lowered by 0.6 million tons. The world’s rice ending stocks are predicted to fall by 1.5 million tons but will remain 3 percent higher than 2015-2016 ending stocks.
The WASDE reports include forecasts for US and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, and palm), and cotton. The next report will be released on January 12.
By: Sara Gustafson, IFPRI