What's New

A new alert from IPC reports that over 5.83 million Haitians—more than half the country’s population—will experience acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) by June 2026. That includes almost 1.9 million people in emergency levels of food insecurity. While these numbers show evidence of slight improvement from IPC estimates published in September 2025, the latest alert emphasizes that these improvements are highly localized.

The FAO Food Price Index rose for the second month in a row in March, up by 2.4 percent from February. As the conflict escalates in the Near East, global energy prices have surged, with varying impacts on commodity prices. The Index reached 1 percent above its March 2025 level but remains nearly 20 percent below the peak of March 2022. The Cereal Price Index increased by 1.5 percent in March, with all major cereals except rise seeing a rise in prices. Wheat prices rose by 4.3 percent due to concerns over drought in the U.S.

Key takeawaysFertilizer and energy, not food, are the core shocks. The Hormuz closure is disrupting energy and fertilizer shipments and driving up prices, but grain markets remain stable. Classic food price‑spike conditions are absent. Strong demand, tight stocks, weak dollar, and weather shocks aren’t aligning as in past crises. Food prices likely won’t surge soon. Ample global stocks and favorable crop conditions limit the risk of broad commodity price spikes. Agricultural commodity prices have been under sustained downward pressure s

Key takeaways

•Shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have already driven sharp increases in fertilizer and energy prices.
•Higher prices could reduce fertilizer use and lower crop yields if the disruption persists, posing significant food security risks.
•Most vulnerable are countries heavily dependent on Persian Gulf fertilizer and natural gas—especially in Africa and South Asia.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) stands as a vital supplier to the global food system, yet its agricultural sector faces intensified disruptions from rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns. In their book chapter on “Adapting to a Changing Climate: Strategies for Productive and Resilient Agrifood Systems” the authors looked at how factors like yield shocks, water constraints, and heat stress introduce new push-and-pull forces that alter crop viability and regional advantages.