Global wheat supplies dropped by 4.2 million tons this month due to sharply reduced production in India and Kazakhstan, according to the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report . WASDE also raised its global wheat use estimates for 2016-2017 based on higher feed and residual use. This combination of falling global supplies and increasing global demand has led world ending stock estimates to be reduced by 4.7 million tons.
Global oil seed supply estimates for 2016-2017 were also lowered this month, driven mostly by reduced soybean oil production. Total world soybean oil production fell by 1.2 million tons, with most of the reduction coming from Argentina, where heavy rains impacted the soybean crop. Total trade in oilseeds is expected to rise slightly (0.7 million tons) for 2016-2017. Overall, reduced soybean stocks in Argentina and reduced rapeseed stocks in Canada will drive global ending stocks down.
Global coarse grain supply estimates, on the other hand, rose by 1.4 million tons. Global coarse grain consumption and trade for 2016-2017 were also forecast up this month. Corn production in Mexico is anticipated to hit a record high following a favorable summer growing season; Ukraine is also expected to see record high corn harvests. Corn exports are forecast up for Ukraine and Canada, while Vietnam’s and Iran’s anticipated corn imports are raised. China’s use of corn for feed and residual use will also be higher. Despite the increased production, global corn ending stocks fell slightly this month.
Finally, global rice supply estimates rose slightly this month, as did global rice exports and total global use estimates. Despite a slight decrease this month, total global rice ending stocks are still anticipated to be the largest since 2001-2002.
The WASDE reports include forecasts for US and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, and palm), and cotton. The next report will be released on March 9.
By: Sara Gustafson, IFPRI