According to the June WADSE Report, global wheat supplies for 2017-2018 are up 2.8 million tons. These projections are greatly influenced by a higher production forecast for Russia, which is projected to be 69.0 million tons. Wheat production in India is forecast to be lower by 1 million tons, but remains 9 million tons higher than 2016-2017 production. Similarly, EU wheat production forecasts declined slightly this month but remains 4 percent higher than the previous year’s levels. Foreign wheat exports for 2017-2018 are forecast a bit higher this month, with increased exports from Argentina and Iran offsetting a reduction from the EU. Global ending stocks are projected at a record 261.2 millions tons. This is an increase of 2.9 million tons from last month.

The coarse grain outlook forecasts lower production, increased trade, and reduced stocks relative to last month. Both the EU and Canada are experiencing lowered corn production; however, in the Ukraine, corn production prospects were raised based on reported planting progress. Brazil’s corn production forecasts is also raised due to above-normal rainfall that boosted yield prospects. In South Africa, corn production is also on the rise, reflecting recent estimates from the government. Corn exports for Ukraine and Russia are projected to be higher; global ending stocks fell from last month, with reductions for Canada, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting increases for South Africa and Ukraine.

Total global rice supplies are down this month due to lowered beginning stocks and unchanged production. The biggest change to global supplies is a 1.5 million-ton increase in India’s 2016-2017 production reported in updated government statistics. Global rice production for 2017-2018 is down 2.1 million tons from last year, but this total is still the second largest on record. Export forecasts were raised 0.5 million tons for 2017-2018, largely on increases from India. Ending stocks are raised 0.8 million tons for this year.

Oilseed price supply and demand forecasts for 2017-2018 include higher production and stocks compare to last month. Global soybean production is raised 3.3 million tons to 351.3 million, mostly reflecting increased yields from Brazil (up by 2.4 million tons). These increases have caused beginning stocks for 2017-2018 to rise from 3.1 million tons to 93.2 million tons. Larger beginning stocks combined with a 0.5 million-ton reduction in Argentina’s soybean exports in 2017-2018 have resulted in a predicted 3.4 million-ton increase in global soybean ending stocks.

World cotton projections include increases in global production, consumption, and ending stocks; global cotton trade is projected to fall by two percent. Production is raised for Pakistan, China, and Mexico based on a higher estimated planted area in these countries. World ending stocks are now projected at 87.7 million bales, the lowest since 2011-2012.

By: Jenn Campus

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