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Nearly 1.7 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are projected to suffer acute malnutrition between August 2024 and July 2025. This includes 412,400 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 1.3 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 96,200 pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period.

The departments with the highest number of malnourished children between August 2024 and July 2025 include those in the Critical and Serious phases, which together account for a significant portion of the country's total malnutrition caseload.

The major drivers of acute malnutrition in Niger include inadequate quantity and poor quality of children's diets, high prevalence of diseases, inadequate access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and low hygiene practices. Additionally, reduced access to health and nutrition services, suboptimal breastfeeding practices, and high levels of food insecurity exacerbate acute malnutrition levels. Lastly, other risk factors like widespread shocks, including potential environmental and economic challenges, continue to negatively impact the nutrition situation.

Between October 2024 and March 2025, 1.98 million people are projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of that total, 212,000 are likely to experience IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.7 million people are likely to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

This marks a stark deterioration from the current period (August to September 2024), where 1.49 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. There were 46,000 people classified in Phase 4 and 1.4 million people were in Phase 3. The increase of people classified in Phase 4 is particularly concerning. Emphasis is on the districts that are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to IPC Phase 3 or above (Balama, Montepuez, Namuno in Cabo Delgado, Mandimbaand Marrupa in Niassa, Chibabava in Sofala and KaMubucuana and KaMavota in the City of Maputo).

The key drivers of the acute food insecurity situation include the El Niño-induced drought which significantly affected the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season in a large part of the country – particularly the central region. The southern region recorded heavy rains in March associated with tropical storm Filipo which affected 130,000 people.

The presence of government and local forces have helped maintain relative stability in Cabo Delgado province in recent months. However, small, scattered groups of armed actors continue to operate in several locations in Cabo Delgado, including Chiúre, Metuge, Quissanga, Ancuabe, Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia and Mecufi, leading to continued tension and fear of new attacks.

Between October and November 2024, about 1.59 million Lebanese, Syrian refugees, and Palestine refugees (29 percent of the total population analysed) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among them, about 205,000 people (4 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.4 million people (25 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). These results show an increase compared to the 1.26 million people in Phase 3 or above estimated for the April-September 2024 period by the IPC analysis projection update conducted in March 2024. The significant deterioration of more than 300,000 people in Phase 3 or above is mainly attributed to the compounded impact of conflict and large displacement on aggregate sectors of Lebanese economy such as trade and tourism, which further aggravated the deep economic crisis of the recent years.

For the current period of analysis (October to November 2024), the details of the population analysed showed that a total of 928,000 Lebanese residents (24 percent of the resident population), 579,000 Syrian refugees (38 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 84,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) experienced Phase 3 or above.

Between December 2024 and March 2025, a slight deterioration of the food security situation is expected with about 1.65 million people (30 percent of the analysed population) likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). A total of 201,000 individuals (4 percent) are likely to experience Phase 4, and 1.45 million people (26 percent) are likely to experience Phase 3. Among them, 970,000 Lebanese residents (25 percent of the resident population), 594,000 Syrian refugees (39 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 89,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) are likely to experience Phase 3 or above. These populations require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition.

Between January and March 2025, which coincides with the harvest period, nearly 1.2 million people (10 percent of the total population analysed) are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is a marked improvement from the current period (November to December 2024), where 1.9 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

The improvement is likely a result of the expected favourable agricultural performance and abundant rainfall, as well as the increase in household food stocks, even if during this period, the prices of manufactured products are expected to remain higher than average due to the high cost transportation.

Nearly 3.5 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are suffering or projected to suffer acute malnutrition between June 2024 and May 2025 and require urgent interventions. This includes 867,300 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 2.6 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period. Regarding the severity of acute malnutrition, between June and October 2024, a period considered to be current and reflecting conditions when data was collected, four provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) including Helmand, Kandahar, Nuristan, and Paktika. Moreover, 24 provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) including Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Logar, Panjsher, Ghazni, Paktya, Khost, Daykundi, Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan, Faryab, Nangarhar, Kunar, Ghor, Badghis, Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul. The remaining six provinces were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Alert). In the Projection period, the overall situation is expected to largely stay the same till May 2025 with only one province (Balkh) expected to worsen from Phase 2 to Phase 3 and one province (Khost) expected to improve from Phase 3 to Phase 2.

Approximately 357,900 children aged 6 and 59 months are suffering or expected
to suffer acute malnutrition between September 2024 and August 2025, with
almost 51 percent (182,700) of cases expected in the Grand Sud-Est and 49
percent (175,200) in the Grand Sud. Of that total, 83,400 children are likely to
suffer Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 274,500 are likely to suffer Moderate
Acute Malnutrition (MAM). The highest caseload of children suffering SAM is in
the Grand Sud-Est region (60 percent), compared to 40 percent in the Grand Sud.
In the first projection period (January – April 2025), the most affected districts in IPC
AMN Phase 3 or above (Critical or worse) will be Nosy Varika, Ifanadiana, Mananjary,
Ikongo, Manakara, Vondrozo, Farafangana and Befotaka for the Grand Sud-Est, and
Amboasary for the Grand Sud.
The nutrition situation is projected to improve slightly in the second projection period
(May – August 2025). Only two districts will remain in Phase 3, namely Farafangana
and Amboasary, while three districts will be in IPC AMN Phase 1 (Acceptable): Toliara
II, Taolagnaro and Vohipeno. The other districts will remain in IPC AMN Phase 2 (Alert).
While there has been a slight improvement in the nutritional situation compared with
previous years in the Grand Sud and Grand Sud-Est, the population’s diet remains
insufficient, both in quality and quantity, and dietary practices remain inadequate.
Reduced access to latrines and insufficient hygiene practices as well as reduced access
to health services are also contributing factors to the acute malnutrition situation.
Access to drinking water and sanitation services also remains a major problem with
open defecation a widespread practice. Childhood illnesses are another contributing
factor, with diarrhea and Acute Respiratory Infections (AFI) highly prevalent in both
regions. Low vaccination coverage also exposes children to infectious diseases
that compromise their nutritional status. Vaccination coverage varies between 28
and 76 percent in Grand Sud, and between 32 and 77 percent in Grand Sud-Est.

Between September 2024 and March 2025, approximately 2 million people (31 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity - classified as IPC Phase 3 or above. Nearly 1.7 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 307,000 are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

The populations most affected include those who experienced low yields from agricultural production and have already depleted their food reserves. This group includes casual labourers, displaced households, and poor urban families reliant on the market for their food needs. While these individuals are dispersed throughout the country, their presence is comparatively higher in the prefectures of Basse-Kotto, Lim Pendé, Mambéré, Mbomou, Nana-Mambéré, Ouaka, and Ouham-Pendé.

Despite some seasonal improvement compared to the previous update in April 2024—when 2.5 million people (41 percent of the population) were classified in Phase 3 or above —the situation remains concerning due to several factors. These include economic access challenges for certain households, a lack of food reserves, disruptions in internal and cross-border supply chains due to armed violence, flooding impacts, irregular rainfall affecting agriculture (the primary livelihood in most areas), and population displacement.

The situation is expected to deteriorate between April and August 2025 if necessary measures are not implemented. About 2.25 million people (35 percent of the analysed population) will likely experience Crisis (Phase 3) and Emergency (Phase 4) levels of acute food insecurity. During this period, it is estimated that around 1.82 million people will be in Phase 3 and approximately 431,000 people will be in Phase 4.

Nearly 5.4 million children aged 0-59 months in northwest and northeast Nigeria are suffering from acute malnutrition and will likely continue suffering through 2025. This includes about 1.8 million cases of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 3.6 million cases of Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, approximately 787,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women are acutely malnourished.

In the current period of May – September 2024, over half of the 133 Local Government Areas (LGAs) assessed were classified as IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 3 (Serious) or Phase 4 (Critical). Specifically, in the northeast, 10 LGAs were in Phase 4 and 21 in Phase 3; in the northwest, there were 24 in Phase 4 and 29 in Phase 3.

Key factors driving this crisis include poor food consumption, inadequate health services, and ongoing food insecurity. The number of acutely malnourished children needing treatment has risen by 23 percent since the last analysis, with SAM cases increasing by 69 percent.

The first projection period from October to December 2024 indicates that acute malnutrition levels in both the northeast and northwest regions are expected to remain largely stable compared to the current period. However, Northern Yobe is likely to see a deterioration in its situation. During the second projection period from January to April 2025, conditions in the northeast are anticipated to remain similar, with the exception of Mobbar and Nganzai in Northern Borno, where a decline is expected.