Asia: Southern Asia

Climate change is increasing the frequency of adverse weather events and reducing agricultural productivity, particularly in warmer regions of the world (Ortiz-Bobea et al 2021). Smallholder farming households in developing countries depend on agriculture for their livelihoods and spend a larger proportion of their income on food,  making them the most vulnerable to harvest failures  (Hallegatte et al 2020).

Reducing food loss and waste (FLW) is crucial to improving food security, reducing malnutrition, and providing livelihoods for food system workers. But such efforts are also key to combating climate change. FLW has significant environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in both the production of food that is later lost and in waste management.

In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice. Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024.

With global temperatures already 1.2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, climate change is having major impacts on agriculture that fall disproportionately on the Global South—from crops, to livestock, to aquaculture. Agricultural systems endure frequent heat waves, flooding, and drought—often all in one season. Climate-related extreme weather events such as intense rainstorms pose a serious threat to crops.

IFPRI and its research partners have studied the pace and pattern of agricultural transformation within the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Feed the Future (FTF) countries. A series of 21 case studies were produced that measure each country's agrifood system, analyze changes over the past decade, and identify common patterns across the countries. James Thurlow, Director of IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, highlighted four important lessons from the country studies in a recent USAID Agrilinks webinar.