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Between November 2024 and March 2025, approximately 11 million people in Pakistan’s rural population (22 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. This includes 1.7 million people (3 percent of the population analysed) experiencing critical levels of acute food insecurity – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Approximately 9.3 million people (19 percent of the population analysed) are experiencing crisis levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). These populations urgently require interventions to safeguard livelihoods, mitigate food deficits, and save lives.

The projected analysis period in Lesotho aligns with the lean season starting from October to March 2025. The projection analysis conducted in November 2024 shows an improved food security situation compared to the May 2024 assessment and analysis. This improvement is largely due to ongoing humanitarian assistance—such as cash and food transfers—from the government of Lesotho, humanitarian organizations, and UN agencies, which have significantly helped reduce food gaps. During the projected period (January-March 2025), approximately 335,000 people (22 percent of the rural population) are expected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis), compared to 403,000 people in the May 2024 analysis for the same period. Overall, with this new analysis, all ten districts remain classified under IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

Nearly 1.7 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are projected to suffer acute malnutrition between August 2024 and July 2025. This includes 412,400 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 1.3 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 96,200 pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period.

The departments with the highest number of malnourished children between August 2024 and July 2025 include those in the Critical and Serious phases, which together account for a significant portion of the country's total malnutrition caseload.

The major drivers of acute malnutrition in Niger include inadequate quantity and poor quality of children's diets, high prevalence of diseases, inadequate access to safe drinking water, sanitation, and low hygiene practices. Additionally, reduced access to health and nutrition services, suboptimal breastfeeding practices, and high levels of food insecurity exacerbate acute malnutrition levels. Lastly, other risk factors like widespread shocks, including potential environmental and economic challenges, continue to negatively impact the nutrition situation.

Between October 2024 and March 2025, 1.98 million people are projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of that total, 212,000 are likely to experience IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.7 million people are likely to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

This marks a stark deterioration from the current period (August to September 2024), where 1.49 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. There were 46,000 people classified in Phase 4 and 1.4 million people were in Phase 3. The increase of people classified in Phase 4 is particularly concerning. Emphasis is on the districts that are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to IPC Phase 3 or above (Balama, Montepuez, Namuno in Cabo Delgado, Mandimbaand Marrupa in Niassa, Chibabava in Sofala and KaMubucuana and KaMavota in the City of Maputo).

The key drivers of the acute food insecurity situation include the El Niño-induced drought which significantly affected the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season in a large part of the country – particularly the central region. The southern region recorded heavy rains in March associated with tropical storm Filipo which affected 130,000 people.

The presence of government and local forces have helped maintain relative stability in Cabo Delgado province in recent months. However, small, scattered groups of armed actors continue to operate in several locations in Cabo Delgado, including Chiúre, Metuge, Quissanga, Ancuabe, Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia and Mecufi, leading to continued tension and fear of new attacks.

Between October and November 2024, about 1.59 million Lebanese, Syrian refugees, and Palestine refugees (29 percent of the total population analysed) experienced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Among them, about 205,000 people (4 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.4 million people (25 percent of the population analysed) experienced IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). These results show an increase compared to the 1.26 million people in Phase 3 or above estimated for the April-September 2024 period by the IPC analysis projection update conducted in March 2024. The significant deterioration of more than 300,000 people in Phase 3 or above is mainly attributed to the compounded impact of conflict and large displacement on aggregate sectors of Lebanese economy such as trade and tourism, which further aggravated the deep economic crisis of the recent years.

For the current period of analysis (October to November 2024), the details of the population analysed showed that a total of 928,000 Lebanese residents (24 percent of the resident population), 579,000 Syrian refugees (38 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 84,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) experienced Phase 3 or above.

Between December 2024 and March 2025, a slight deterioration of the food security situation is expected with about 1.65 million people (30 percent of the analysed population) likely to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). A total of 201,000 individuals (4 percent) are likely to experience Phase 4, and 1.45 million people (26 percent) are likely to experience Phase 3. Among them, 970,000 Lebanese residents (25 percent of the resident population), 594,000 Syrian refugees (39 percent of the total Syrian refugee population in Lebanon), and 89,000 Palestinian refugees (40 percent of the total Palestinian refugee population in Lebanon) are likely to experience Phase 3 or above. These populations require urgent humanitarian action to reduce food gaps, protect and restore livelihoods and prevent acute malnutrition.

Between January and March 2025, which coincides with the harvest period, nearly 1.2 million people (10 percent of the total population analysed) are projected to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is a marked improvement from the current period (November to December 2024), where 1.9 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

The improvement is likely a result of the expected favourable agricultural performance and abundant rainfall, as well as the increase in household food stocks, even if during this period, the prices of manufactured products are expected to remain higher than average due to the high cost transportation.

Nearly 3.5 million children, aged 6 to 59 months, are suffering or projected to suffer acute malnutrition between June 2024 and May 2025 and require urgent interventions. This includes 867,300 cases of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and almost 2.6 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition (MAM). Additionally, 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women (PBW) are expected to suffer acute malnutrition in the same period. Regarding the severity of acute malnutrition, between June and October 2024, a period considered to be current and reflecting conditions when data was collected, four provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) including Helmand, Kandahar, Nuristan, and Paktika. Moreover, 24 provinces were classified in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) including Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Logar, Panjsher, Ghazni, Paktya, Khost, Daykundi, Badakhshan, Takhar, Kunduz, Sar-e-Pul, Jawzjan, Faryab, Nangarhar, Kunar, Ghor, Badghis, Hirat, Farah, Nimroz, Uruzgan and Zabul. The remaining six provinces were classified in IPC Phase 2 (Alert). In the Projection period, the overall situation is expected to largely stay the same till May 2025 with only one province (Balkh) expected to worsen from Phase 2 to Phase 3 and one province (Khost) expected to improve from Phase 3 to Phase 2.