Outline
PAPERS AND DATA
Who we are
This webtool was developed by Soonho Kim, Nicola Cenacchi, the IMPACT modeling team at IFPRI (Keith Wiebe, Tim Sulser and Shahnila Dunston) and the Food Security Portal team (Rob Vos, Betina Dimaranan, Brendan Rice, and Sara Gustafson). For any comments or feedback please contact Soonho Kim (soonho.kim@cgiar.org)
The effects of climate change are already being felt, and they are projected to worsen in the course of the 21st century, with impacts varying by region. Adaptation is critical to continue pursuing sustainable development goals (SDGs), including on fighting poverty (SDG1), hunger (SDG2), and managing water resources (SDG6).
Estimating the impacts of a changing climate on the agriculture sector, and the corresponding adaptation costs, is a complex exercise. It is reflected by the variety of approaches used for costs-calculation, and the differing magnitude of results. In 2009, IFPRI published a study on the costs of selected agricultural investments to offset the adverse impacts of climate change, as proxied by levels of childhood undernutrition. The study illustrated in these pages, published in 2021 and cited in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report in 2022, is an update of the 2009 exercise. It uses scenario analysis to explore the potential of different investment options to offset the impacts of climate change out to the year 2050. The impacts of climate change as well as the adaptation potential, are measured in terms of number of people at risk of chronic hunger. The cost of the different options is described in the Food Policy Report (follow “Explore the report” on the left bar), and the Key Findings section below summarizes the cost numbers.
Key Findings
The study estimates the degree to which investments in agricultural R&D, water management, and infrastructure may offset the impacts of climate change, and help reach the goal of zero hunger. It also builds on recent methodologies to assess the corresponding costs of each intervention across the developing world.
Climate change slows progress in reducing hunger
Projections show that climate change is going to slow progress in reducing hunger to 2050, especially in Africa south of the Sahara.
Boosting agricultural R&D (Research & Development)
Among the adaptation investment options, boosting agricultural R&D (Research & Development) is the most cost-effective option. It would require US$1.97 billion in annual incremental investment to offset the impacts of climate change on hunger levels.
Water management and rural infrastructure
Increased investment of US$13 billion for water management, and US$11 billion for rural infrastructure are essential to complement and sustain R&D-based gains, especially over the longer term.
Alternative investment options
Alternative investment options offer a different mix of possibilities and trade-offs: R&D investments may offer the largest reductions in hunger, while investing in water management provides higher likelihood of long-term reliability of irrigation supply. Investments that combine all options can have larger positive effects for multiple goals, but at a higher cost.
Reference Scenarios
Three reference scenarios are used (REF-HGEM), built on assumptions of climate change, income growth and socioeconomic development from the IPCC 5th assessment report (AR5). Socioeconomic assumptions are drawn from three IPCC Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP1, 2 and 3). The assumed trajectory of climate change is common across the three socioeconomic scenarios and is based on the IPCC’s Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) and the HadGEM general circulation model (GCM). These three reference scenarios are those against which comparisons are made from the adaptation investment scenarios shown below. A scenario without climate change (REF-NoCC) is also included to show the effects of climate impacts.
1. GDP
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Source: Timothy B. Sulser, Keith Wiebe, Shahnila Dunston, Nicola Cenacchi, Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Richard D. Robertson, Dirk Willenbockel, and Mark W. Rosegrant. Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 2021. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165
2. Population at risk hunger
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Source: Timothy B. Sulser, Keith Wiebe, Shahnila Dunston, Nicola Cenacchi, Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Richard D. Robertson, Dirk Willenbockel, and Mark W. Rosegrant. Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 2021. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165
Investment Options Scenarios
The investments that are assessed as options to offset the impacts of climate change are: investments in R&D (HIGH-RE), water management (IX-WUE), and a scenario that combines R&D and water management with investments in rural infrastructure (COMP). In general terms, supporting R&D to boost yields of crops and livestock has the effect of reducing food prices and increasing farm income, with positive effects on diets and nutrition. Investing in irrigation and water use has a similar impact pathway on diets and nutrition. Investing in rural infrastructure reduces postharvest losses, boosting both supply to consumers as well as farm and economywide income, with, again, positive effects on diets. The effects of these interventions are measured compared to the reference scenarios described above, and we use changes in the number of people facing chronic hunger as the key indicator to measure the level of adaptation to climate shocks. The target of the study was to measure a level of investment that may reduce “the number of hungry people projected in 2050 to the same level that would be achieved in the absence of climate change”. In order to do that, the results shown here also include data for the reference scenarios without climate change. Because of the described impact pathways and because the main indicator of the study is the population at risk of chronic hunger, the results shown here and in the REF scenario above focus on effects on GDP and population at risk of hunger.
1. GDP
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Source: Timothy B. Sulser, Keith Wiebe, Shahnila Dunston, Nicola Cenacchi, Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Richard D. Robertson, Dirk Willenbockel, and Mark W. Rosegrant. Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 2021. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165
2. Population at risk hunger
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Source: Timothy B. Sulser, Keith Wiebe, Shahnila Dunston, Nicola Cenacchi, Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Richard D. Robertson, Dirk Willenbockel, and Mark W. Rosegrant. Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 2021. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165
3. Share of population at risk hunger
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Source: Timothy B. Sulser, Keith Wiebe, Shahnila Dunston, Nicola Cenacchi, Alejandro Nin-Pratt, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Richard D. Robertson, Dirk Willenbockel, and Mark W. Rosegrant. Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system. Intl Food Policy Res Inst, 2021. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294165
Funding Partners
We gratefully acknowledge our partners for their funding in support of the Tool pages within the Food Security Portal
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
