A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls

To address rising domestic prices for rice, India banned exports of non-basmati rice on July 20, 2023—a move many feared would drive global prices even higher. Since then, these worries have been realized: Thailand’s benchmark price for rice has increased 14 percent, Viet Nam’s rice prices are up 22 percent, and India’s white rice prices are up 12 percent.

To prevent exporters from undermining its ban, India instituted a surcharge of 20 percent on exports of parboiled rice and a minimum sales price for basmati rice in August. India’s actions have had repercussions around the world as domestic consumers struggle with higher prices and rice importers seek alternative suppliers. Some markets have experienced cases of panic buying (the United States and Canada), additional export restrictions (such as export licensing requirements in Myanmar), and price controls (retail price caps in the Philippines).

At an August meeting of ASEAN countries, leaders committed to maintain an unimpeded flow of agricultural products and refrain from using “unjustified” trade barriers. Meanwhile, a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific has threatened to cut the rice production of key Asian suppliers and push prices sharply higher. This webinar will provide a brief update on the global rice situation.

Opening Remarks

• Joseph Glauber, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI and Interim Secretary, Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)

An Overview of the Global Rice Market

• Shirley Mustafa, Economist, Markets and Trade, Social and Economic Development Stream, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

The Impact of El Niño on Rice Markets

• Inbal Becker-Reshef, Director, NASA Harvest | Research Professor, University of Maryland/University of Strasbourg, GEOGLAM (Invited)

The Impact of Export Restrictions in the Rice Market

• Abdullah Mamun, Senior Research Analyst, IFPRI

The Importance of Rice in Senegal

• Fousseini Traoré, Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI

Moderator

• Seth Meyer, Chief Economist, USDA and AMIS Chair

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