Within a few weeks of marking the first anniversary of the Hamas-Israel war, the worst possible food security scenario is playing out in Gaza.
A blog published on October 4 warned the risk of famine in the region remained high despite increased entrance of commercial food supplies. The main reasons for this risk were that humanitarian supplies were severely down, while decimated livelihoods, spiking food prices, crippled food market and distribution systems, and destroyed local food production capacity had severely limited food access for the 2 million people living in Gaza. Moreover, the already severe restrictions on humanitarian operations have resulted in the collapse of health services and drinking water and sanitary systems and have hampered the ability of food and other humanitarian assistance to reach the near-entire population in need.
With a surge in hostilities seen during October and the recent decision by Israel’s Knesset to ban the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) from operating in Gaza[1], the situation has escalated quickly. With nearly the entire population already having been displaced multiple times, often under continued shelling and bombardments, the majority are living in temporary makeshift camps with an alarming density of almost 40,000 people per square kilometer. Intended or not, food has now blatantly become a weapon of war.
As a result, the concern is that a worst-case scenario will materialize soon. According to an October analysis from the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC), the whole of the Gaza Strip will be at risk of famine between November 2024 and April 2025.
That analysis also classified about 1.8 million people across the Gaza Strip as currently facing food emergency (IPC Phase 4). It assessed 20% of children under the age of five faced severe acute malnutrition (IPC AMN Phase 3), which is ten times higher than before the escalation of hostilities (see Figure 1).
This week, an alert from the IPC Famine Review Committee confirmed fears that present emergency will likely soon become a catastrophic famine.
The alert emphasizes that food supplies in the entire Gaza Strip have deteriorated rapidly and significantly. As of the end of October, the amount of supplies being allowed into the region was lower even than it was in early 2024, when acute malnutrition was rampant and famine was projected in the northern directorates.
And it is not just food supply that is posing an insurmountable challenge. Food prices have surged in recent months, rising by 77 percent between August and September 2024. The alert reports that overall, food prices in Gaza have increased by a shocking 312 percent since before the start of the war. At the same time, livelihood and income opportunities have collapsed, leaving desperate households unable to purchase or barter for much-needed food.
Acute malnutrition should be expected to worsen rapidly in all governorates, as also happened during the severe curtailment of humanitarian food assistance in February of this year. Restricted food access is being compounded by the risk of spread of disease with dysfunctional water, sanitary, and health services in Gaza’s high population density settings. In Rafah, the deterioration may soon reach critical levels (IPC AMN Phase 4), according to the IPC. Disease control has been interrupted as well. For instance, the Polio Technical Committee for Gaza, which comprises the Palestinian Ministry of Health, WHO, UNICEF, and UNRWA, was been compelled to postpone the third phase of its polio vaccination campaign, which was to start on October 2023, risking spread of the disease.
During the first nine months of 2024, the population was able to mitigate further worsening of acute malnutrition by prioritizing feeding children and using life-saving nutrition assistance, including blanket supplementary feeding of children with fortified, high-calorie foods. However, with the current restrictions on humanitarian assistance, soaring food prices, reduced access to fresh food, and the collapse of Gaza’s health, water, and sanitary services systems, there is nothing left that would avoid an accelerated worsening of acute food insecurity and malnutrition.
The severe overcrowding in a rapidly diminishing area, with people living in makeshift shelters and experiencing at best only sporadic access to essential humanitarian aid and services, significantly increases the risk of widespread epidemic outbreaks and a catastrophic food insecurity situation unparalleled in scale. Recent attacks on camps, shelters, and infrastructure throughout Gaza, coupled with renewed evacuation orders in North Gaza over the past weeks, further escalate the likelihood of this devastating scenario becoming a reality. The emerging situation will moreover impede any reconstruction and restoration of livelihoods for the people in the area.
The situation can only be reversed with immediate action that includes:
- Cessation of hostilities and allow the population to move out of the camps and towards the locations where they think to be able to restore livelihoods.
- Restoration of humanitarian access for humanitarian access for the provision of lifesaving, multi-sectoral assistance. Scaling up assistance for the prevention of acute malnutrition by improving coverage of blanket supplementary feeding, infant and young child feeding program. This will not be possible without restoration of UNRWA’s faculties to fully operate (there is no alternative).
- Protection of the remaining infrastructure and start with the rehabilitation of local food production and restoration of markets and distribution system and essential services (telecommunication, electricity, financial services, etc.).
- Strengthen the food security and nutrition information systems to timely detect any change in the risk factors for acute food insecurity and malnutrition to inform adequate preventive action.
Figure 1
20% of children under 5 faced severe acute malnutrition in September 2024
Source: Integrated Phase Classification (IPC). Gaza Strip: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Special Snapshot. September 2024.
Rob Vos is a a Senior Research Fellow in IFPRI's Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. Sara Gustafson is a freelance communications consultant.
[1] UNRWA is currently the only organization still providing humanitarian services in Gaza and has been the main organization keeping basic services, education, and health services and logistics operating in Gaza since its establishment in 1948.