Between October 2024 and March 2025, 1.98 million people are projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Of that total, 212,000 are likely to experience IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 1.7 million people are likely to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

This marks a stark deterioration from the current period (August to September 2024), where 1.49 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above. There were 46,000 people classified in Phase 4 and 1.4 million people were in Phase 3. The increase of people classified in Phase 4 is particularly concerning. Emphasis is on the districts that are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to IPC Phase 3 or above (Balama, Montepuez, Namuno in Cabo Delgado, Mandimbaand Marrupa in Niassa, Chibabava in Sofala and KaMubucuana and KaMavota in the City of Maputo).

The key drivers of the acute food insecurity situation include the El Niño-induced drought which significantly affected the 2023/24 rainy and agricultural season in a large part of the country – particularly the central region. The southern region recorded heavy rains in March associated with tropical storm Filipo which affected 130,000 people.

The presence of government and local forces have helped maintain relative stability in Cabo Delgado province in recent months. However, small, scattered groups of armed actors continue to operate in several locations in Cabo Delgado, including Chiúre, Metuge, Quissanga, Ancuabe, Mocímboa da Praia, Macomia and Mecufi, leading to continued tension and fear of new attacks.