Limited food access, combined with high food prices and climate variability are driving 922,000 people (8 percent of the population analysed) into high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between February and May 2025. There are 28 provinces projected to be in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) during this time. Food price inflation is expected to persist, further limiting food access, especially for the most vulnerable households. Additionally, remittances are projected to decline significantly, while commercial and tourism-related activities are expected to decrease following the end of the peak visitor season.
In the projected period (June to September 2025), the situation will remain more or less the same, with 890,000 people (8 percent of the population analysed) projected to be in Phase 3 or above. Inflation is expected to remain resistant to decline due to domestic demand and production costs, while food prices will continue rising. The transition from La Niña to neutral climatic conditions may support agricultural production and reduce disaster-related risks. However, households with students will face increased food expenses due to the end of the school term and the suspension of the school feeding programme.