USDA Releases Latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

The USDA’s monthly report on World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was released on November 9.

Estimates for global wheat production for 2016-2017 remained virtually unchanged at 744.72 million tons. Global exports were lowered by 0.5 million tons, mainly on account of reduced exports from Canada after precipitation during harvest damaged wheat crops. By contrast, the global use of wheat was raised by 0.8 million tons to 736 million tons due to increased feed use in Ukraine, Canada, and Russia. As global wheat production remains higher than use, predicted world stocks for the end of the year remain at a record high of 249.3 million tons.

Global coarse grain production estimates were up by 4.9 million tons in November at 1,319 million tons, mainly driven by production increases and record yield projections in Ukraine and Russia. Conversely, production estimates were decreased for Vietnam and Bolivia. Similarly, estimates for global coarse grain use were increased by 3 million tons to 1314 million tons, and end-of-year stocks were increased by 0.5 million tons to 250.5 million tons. Both Ukraine and Russia are projected to see significant increases in corn exports, while significant increases in corn imports are expected for Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Global rice production, trade, and use estimates for 2016-2017 remained virtually unchanged in November at 483, 41, and 478 million tons, respectively. However, global rice supplies were raised by 1.3 million tons, mainly driven by higher beginning stocks due to reduced revisions in Indian domestic use for last year.

Global oilseed production for 2016-2017 is estimated at 551 million tons, up 3 million over August and up nearly 30 million tons over October 2015. This month’s increases were mainly driven by significant increases in soybean production in the United States, Russia, and Mexico. Small production increases were registered for cottonseed, peanuts, and rapeseed oil, mainly due to production increases in India and China that offset small production decreases in sunflower seed in Bolivia and the EU. Global trade in oilseeds also increased by 0.5 million tons over the last report, mainly due to increased soybean exports from the US, Russia, and Ukraine and increased rapeseed exports from the EU.

The WASDE reports include forecasts for US and world wheat, rice, and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, and oats), oilseeds (soybeans, rapeseed, and palm), and cotton. The next report will be released on December 12.