Food Systems

Food, land, and water systems face daunting challenges in the future, and the body of research exploring these challenges is growing rapidly. This note is part of a series developed by the CGIAR Foresight Initiative to summarize what we know today about the future of various aspects of food systems. The goal of these notes is to serve as a quick reference, point to further information, and help guide future research and decisions.

Key messages

The global food system is uniquely vulnerable to climate impacts, making adaptation of paramount importance. While contributing roughly one-third of total anthropogenic emissions, food systems around the world fortunately also hold immense potential for mitigation through improved practices and land use. A new article published today in Science emphasizes the critical role of agrifood value chains (AVCs) in supporting both adaptation and mitigation at the farm level.

Food systems lie at the nexus of the world’s climate change adaptation, poverty reduction, and food and nutrition security goals. A poorly functioning or environmentally unsustainable food system can have severe negative consequences for all three factors, particularly for the poor populations who rely on agri-food systems for their livelihoods. In the OECD’s 2024 Development Co-operation Report, researchers in Chapter 21 examine how climate-smart agriculture technologies and practices can be better integrated to help bridge the gap between climate, poverty, and food security

In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice. Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024.

Urbanization is among the major demographic shifts affecting agrifood systems worldwide. With over half of the world’s population living in urban areas—projected to reach 70 percent by 2050—cities face many challenges in providing residents with  healthy, affordable food. In fact, of the 2.2 billion people experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity, three-quarters live in urban and peri-urban areas.