Outline
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.
The Fertilizer Market Dashboard provides you several ways to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production.
Fertilizer Dashboard
Fertilizer Market Developments
Monthly assessments of fertilizer market developments were prepared for the AMIS Market Monitor. You can find a summary of all months on the "Market Overview" tab of the Fertilizer Market Dashboard above.
Overview of market developments - January 2025 (February update)
Fertilizer market dynamics in January varied across nutrients. Strong demand drove nitrogen fertilizer prices up while ongoing low affordability limited purchases of phosphorus fertilizers. Potential changes in trade policies – along with continued strong demand in India now coinciding with seasonal demand in Australia, Ethiopia, and elsewhere – are among the major dynamics to watch in the coming months.
Fertilizer input prices
Natural gas prices increased in January as cold weather boosted demand. Unplanned Norwegian gas outages further exerted upward pressure on prices in Europe. Ammonia prices fell due to recovering supply in the face of sluggish demand in most regions.
Nitrogen fertilizer prices
Nitrogen fertilizer prices increased in Jan- uary driven by continued strong demand in India. Urea prices (FOB) reached USD 400 per tonne for the first time since February 2024. Despite the prospect of continued limited supply out of China, at the moment availability is not a concern globally. Demand in the US market remains slow but should soon accelerate ahead of spring applications. The outlook for nitrogen prices is firm for the coming weeks.
Phosphorus fertilizer prices
Dynamics in phosphate markets are largely unchanged, characterized by supply limitations and timid buying interest at current price levels. On the supply side, exports from China will likely remain curtailed through at least the end of the first quarter. On the demand side, low phosphate affordability is curbing demand. In this context, phosphate markets should remain steady through the first quarter.
Potash prices
Potash prices increased slightly since the start of 2025, after a period of steady decline. This increase was driven by potash producers constraining supply and betting on strong demand at current price levels. US potash supply is likely to be also under pressure should 25 percent import duties on Canadian products materialize, paving the way for significant domestic price increases.
Fertilizer market analysis by IFPRI & FSP
Here you can find a selection of IFPRI and FSP analysis on fertilizer markets.
