Outline
The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.
The Fertilizer Market Dashboard provides you several ways to monitor the latest developments in fertilizer markets, including a summary of market developments and tools for tracking fertilizer trade, utilization, and production.
Fertilizer Dashboard
Fertilizer Market Developments
Monthly assessments of fertilizer market developments were prepared for the AMIS Market Monitor. You can find a summary of all months on the "Market Overview" tab of the Fertilizer Market Dashboard above.
Overview of market developments - October 2024
Fertilizer markets overall were more active compared to the previous month. Stronger than expected import demand from India for nitrogen and phosphates was the major driver of demand globally. The supply situation remains similar to August, with availabilities particularly tight in phosphate fertilizer markets. Going into the last quarter of 2024, fertilizer demand is expected to pick up, further supporting prices.
Fertilizer input prices
Natural gas prices increased in the United States due to weather-related supply disruptions, while European prices eased reflecting sufficient inventories and increased supply from Norway. Tight ammonia availability overcame subdued demand to support a month-on-month ammonia price increase. While ammonia supply levels normalized in Trinidad and North Africa, production in Saudi Arabia decreased due to technical maintenance. Prices are expected to hold due to upcoming seasonal downstream demand in the US, but easing supply constraints should alleviate the tightness on the global market.
Nitrogen fertilizer prices
Urea prices increased slightly in September. Two tenders in quick succession in India were the main drivers of demand in an otherwise quiet market. There appears to be no movement towards softening urea export restrictions in China, which is likely to keep supply tight, especially considering that demand in Brazil and Europe is set to seasonally pick up in the fourth quarter.
Phosphorus fertilizer prices
As with nitrogen, phosphate markets were driven by import demand from India and continued limited exports out of China. The outlook is for continued tight markets, as India likely still requires further imports to meet domestic demand, and global supply remains constrained reflecting the absence of exports out of China.
Potash prices
Potash prices were mostly flat in September. Previous month’s potential supply shock due to labor disputes in Canada did not materialize, leading to limited impacts on exports for the leading exporter. Elsewhere, a rebound of supply out of Belarus and the Russian Federation is expected for the rest of the year, supporting the outlook for well-supplied markets.
Fertilizer market analysis by IFPRI & FSP
Here you can find a selection of IFPRI and FSP analysis on fertilizer markets.
