Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

The severity of acute food insecurity in Gaza has sharply worsened since early October, when Israel began to increasingly restrict humanitarian and commercial food supply flows to the north and commercial food
supply flows to the south. In the worst-affected areas in North Gaza governorate, including Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya, a siege has caused the near-total blockade of food supply flows since October 1. In the absence of a dramatic increase in food supply flows, Famine (IPC Phase 5) will become the most likely outcome in North Gaza. In the coming weeks, FEWS NET will collaborate with the Integrated Phase classification (IPC) partnership and Famine Review Committee (FRC) on the assessment of Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, government decision-makers should not await this classification, which will only serve to confirm excess hunger related mortality is reaching an extreme threshold for human suffering and
loss of life. FEWS NET urges immediate action to facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance that saves lives.

This FRC alert is issued to express concern about an imminent and substantial likelihood of famine occurring, due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Gaza Strip. While an IPC update will be conducted, this Alert serves to draw immediate attention on the need to take urgent action to alleviate this humanitarian catastrophe in areas of the northern Gaza Strip.

Armed violence and conflict continue to affect the livelihoods of people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This, combined with soaring food prices and the prolonged effects of various epidemics have left approximately 25.6 million in high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse).

Between July to December 2024, around 3 percent of people (around 3.1 million people) are facing critical levels of food insecurity – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – characterized by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 19 percent (22.4 million people) are facing crisis levels of food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

The affected populations are spread throughout the country, however, the most affected populations are mainly displaced people and returnees – concentrated in the provinces of North Kivu, Ituri, South Kivu and Tanganyika, Maindombe – as well as populations affected by natural disasters and unemployment.

The analysis projected for January to June 2025 indicates a situation where food insecurity rates are expected to be almost identical to those of the current situation, with 25.5 million people (22 percent of the population analysed) projected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phases 3 or above), including around 3.3 million people who are projected to face critical levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 4) and 22.2 million people who will likely be in Phase 3.

One year into the conflict, the risk of Famine persists across the whole Gaza Strip. Given the recent surge in hostilities, there are growing concerns that this worstcase scenario may materialize. Violence has displaced nearly 2 million people, decimated livelihoods, crippled food systems, destroyed 70 percent of crop fields, severely restricted humanitarian operations and resulted in the collapse of health services and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) systems. Catastrophic acute food insecurity and concerning acute malnutrition levels will continue to prevail if the conflict continues, and humanitarian activities are restricted.

Between September and October 2024, the whole territory is classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). About 1.84 million people across the Gaza Strip are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, including nearly 133,000 people facing catastrophic food insecurity (IPC Phase 5) and 664,000, in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Acute Malnutrition is at serious levels (IPC AMN Phase 3), ten times higher than before the escalation of the hostilities.

Nearly half of the population (4.7 million people) in the Government of Yemen (GoY) controlled areas experienced high levels of acute food insecurity between July and September 2024, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). This included 1.2 million people who experienced critical levels of food insecurity – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – characterized by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. This reflects a continued, though slower, deterioration in the food security situation compared to the last IPC update (October 2023 – February 2024), when around 4.6 million people were classified in Phase 3 or above.

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is worsening as the lean season ends and pre-harvest conditions set in, compounded by ongoing conflict, severe flooding, and rising prices. In Al Fasher, North Darfur, a blockade and continuous fighting have hindered the delivery of essential supplies, leading to alarming rates of acute malnutrition, especially in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), where levels exceed the Famine threshold (IPC Phase 5).

Many civilians are fleeing nearby IDP camps to seek better protection and services in Zamzam. New assessments from FEWS NET indicate that acute food insecurity is also critical in besieged areas like Dilling and potentially Kadugli in South Kordofan. A significant portion of the population in various regions, including Greater Darfur and parts of Khartoum, faces extreme food shortages.

Recent malnutrition data shows worsening conditions across North, Central, and West Darfur, with seasonal diseases exacerbated by historic rainfall contributing to high malnutrition rates. In several localities, malnutrition levels among children under five have reached alarming rates, with some areas indicating high or extremely critical levels. Although overall mortality rates appear less severe, the ongoing food insecurity and malnutrition are likely to lead to increased hunger-related deaths.

An estimated 5.8 million people (33 percent of the analysed population) will likely experience heightened hunger between October 2024 and March 2025. The IPC projects that nearly 5.6 million people will likely experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 236,000 people IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Seven additional districts are projected to move from IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) to Phase 3 – corresponding to 89 hotspot districts in Zambia. To prevent this dire situation, urgent lifesaving and livelihood assistance is imperative.

The food insecurity is primarily driven by climate related shocks and hazards that affect all districts. Noticeable among these shocks and hazards are prolonged dry spells (leading to droughts), pests and diseases, human-wildlife conflict and high input and food prices, which were mainly driven by exogenous shocks. The prolonged dry spells were largely experienced between December 2023 and March 2024. Occurrences of pest infestations included outbreaks of Fall Army Worms (FAW) and locusts in some parts of the country. Diseases such as the Cassava brown streak disease were also observed to have significantly impacted the seasonal crop performance. In addition, the country suffered an outbreak of cholera that affected over 70 districts. All these drivers of food insecurity were at the backdrop of an already volatile economy, further inundated by exogenous shocks, thereby resulting in increasing commodity prices.

Haiti continues to face a worsening humanitarian crisis, with alarming rates of armed gang violence disrupting daily life, forcing more people to flee their homes and levels of acute food insecurity to rise. Nearly half of the population (48 percent) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in Crisis or worse conditions (IPC Phase 3 or above) between August 2024 and February 2025. This includes 6,000 people experiencing catastrophic levels of hunger and a collapse of their livelihoods, classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). Another 2 million people (18 percent of the population analysed) are facing critical levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), while 3.4 million people face crisis levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). There is a 4 percent increase (1.2 million people) in the prevalence of populations in IPC Phase 3 or above compared to the previous analysis conducted for the same period in August 2023.

An estimated 1.6 million cases of children aged 6 to 59 months are expected to experience acute malnutrition between August 2024 and July 2025. This includes approximately 403,000 children likely to suffer from severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Compared to the same season last year, this represents a 14 and 22 percent increase in the burden of both global acute malnutrition (GAM) and SAM, respectively. Regarding nutrition, between October and December 2024 – a period marked by increased disease outbreaks and reduced food access – acute malnutrition is expected to worsen. In eight areas, the situation is projected to escalate to a higher IPC Phase than the current classification. In the remaining twenty-three areas, while deterioration is anticipated, conditions are likely to remain within the same IPC AMN Phase as observed between June and September 2024. This includes seven areas already classified as being in a Critical situation. The rest are expected to remain in the Serious, Alert, or Acceptable Phases, with no major deterioration foreseen.

Between July 2024 and June 2025, nearly 4.5 million children aged 6 to 59 months are facing or expected to face acute malnutrition, including approximately 1.4 million cases of severe acute malnutrition and 3.1 million cases of moderate acute malnutrition. It is also estimated that 3.7 million pregnant and breastfeeding women are facing or expected to face acute malnutrition over the same period.

The IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) analysis covered 358 units of analysis including health zones (301), territories (53) and provinces (4). These National-scale estimates are not comparable to those of previous years, which only covered part of the health zones.

In the current period (July – December 2024), which coincides with a drop in acute malnutrition, eight units of analysis (23 health zones) are in IPC AMN Phase 4 (Critical) and 49 units of analysis are in IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious).