Early Warning Systems Hub Reports

The latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity analysis covers all 22 departments of Guatemala, revealing that approximately 2.7 million people are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) during the first projection period. These individuals will require urgent intervention. This figure is projected to rise to 2.8 million people between March and May 2025, aligning with the onset of the lean season.

Households at the highest risk of falling into IPC Phases 3 and 4 include those primarily dependent on informal trade, subsistence agriculture, and seasonal labor. Additionally, the most vulnerable populations are those who spend a large portion of their income on food, particularly those living in extreme poverty in rural areas with high rates of unmet basic needs.

By the end of 2024, an estimated 609,808 children will be acutely malnourished, with 118,570 projected to suffer from severe acute malnutrition—a 34 percent increase from 2023 levels. Additionally, around 222,918 pregnant and breastfeeding women are expected to be malnourished. These projections are based on SMART nutrition surveys conducted between November 2023 and February 2024.

Acute malnutrition is a major public health problem in several parts of the Government of Yemen (GoY) areas. Of particular concern are two districts in Hodeidah Southern lowland and one in Taiz lowland (Makha) that are classified in IPC AMN Phase 5 (extremely critical) in the current period (from November 2023 to June 2024). This classification is projected to expand to four districts - Mawza and Al Makha in Taiz lowland and Hays and Al Khawkhah in Hodeidah lowlands— in IPC AMN Phase 5 during the July to October 2024 projection period. These districts require immediate intervention to prevent increased morbidity and potential mortality among children under 5 years of age.

After a careful review of the recent IPC analyses conducted by FEWS NET and the Sudan IPC Technical Working Group (TWG), the Famine Review Committee (FRC) of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has concluded that famine conditions are prevalent in parts of North Darfur, including the Zamzam camp south of El Fasher. The escalating violence in Sudan, which has been persisting for over 15 months now, has severely impeded humanitarian access and pushed parts of North Darfur into Famine, notably Zamzam IDP camp.

Areas are classified in IPC Phase 5 (Famine) when at least one in five (or 20 percent) people or households have an extreme lack of food and face starvation and destitution, resulting in extremely critical levels of acute malnutrition and death.

The Zamzam Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp is located approximately 12 kilometres south of El Fasher town and represents one of the largest IDP camps in Sudan, with an estimated population of at least 500,000.

The scale of devastation brought by the escalating violence in El Fasher town is profound and harrowing. Persistent, intense, and widespread clashes have forced many residents to seek refuge in IDP camps, where they face a stark reality: basic services are scant or absent, compounding the hardship of displacement. Around 320,000 people are believed to have been displaced since mid-April in El Fasher. Around 150,000 to 200,000 of them are believed to have moved to Zamzam camp in search of security, basic services, and food since mid-May. The camp population has expanded to over half a million in a few weeks.

The latest Chronic Food Insecurity analysis revealed that the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) remains critical, with about 40 percent of the population facing IPC Level 3 or above chronic food insecurity. This includes 15.7 million people facing Severe (IPC Level 4) and 25.1 million people facing Moderate (IPC Level 3). Despite the country's abundant natural resources and government efforts, chronic food insecurity persists due to several factors such as protacted armed conflict, large-scale displacement, governance challenges, and recurrent natural disasters.

Chronic food insecurity is primarily driven by armed conflicts – particularly in the eastern regions – which has resulted in large-scale displacement and loss of livelihoods. Governance challenges, including inequitable resource distribution, weak law enforcement, and limited socio-economic investment, further exacerbate the issue. Health crises, such as epidemics and animal diseases, alongside crop attacks, further disrupt food systems and agricultural production, aggravating the food crisis by compromising the food security of populations.

Furthermore, inadequate infrastructure and recurrent natural disasters such as floods and landslides hinder access to essential services such as healthcare, clean water, and electricity. Low agricultural productivity, characterized by a cereal deficit and limited access to quality inputs, remains a significant challenge.

Finally, the depreciation of the Congolese Franc against the US dollar has led to escalating prices and reduced purchasing power, exacerbating the effects of widespread poverty.

The results of this analysis indicate that the insecurity situation acute food intake remains more or less stable but worrying, with 41%
of the analyzed population classified in a Crisis and Emergency situation. Approximately 2.5 million people in Crisis and Emergency situations (Phase 3 and 4 of the IPC) are in need of immediate food assistance. Among the 2.5 million people experiencing high acute food insecurity,

Approximately 508 thousand people are in an emergency situation (Phase 4 of the IPC) and around 2 million people are in Crisis (Phase 3) of the IPC).

Between April and June 2024, an estimated 221,000 people or 19 percent of the analysed population (out of 1.18 million people), are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above), including 38,000 people (3 percent of the analysed population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 183,000 in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

For the projected period (July to December 2024), generally characterized by very high temperatures and movements of pastoralist households, an estimated 285,000 people, representing 24 percent of the population analysed, are expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity. Approximately 53,000 people will be in Phase 4 and 232,000 in Phase 3.