The severity of acute food insecurity in Gaza has sharply worsened since early October, when Israel began to increasingly restrict humanitarian and commercial food supply flows to the north and commercial food
supply flows to the south. In the worst-affected areas in North Gaza governorate, including Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahiya, a siege has caused the near-total blockade of food supply flows since October 1. In the absence of a dramatic increase in food supply flows, Famine (IPC Phase 5) will become the most likely outcome in North Gaza. In the coming weeks, FEWS NET will collaborate with the Integrated Phase classification (IPC) partnership and Famine Review Committee (FRC) on the assessment of Famine (IPC Phase 5). However, government decision-makers should not await this classification, which will only serve to confirm excess hunger related mortality is reaching an extreme threshold for human suffering and
loss of life. FEWS NET urges immediate action to facilitate large-scale, sustained delivery of food and nutrition assistance that saves lives.

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is worsening as the lean season ends and pre-harvest conditions set in, compounded by ongoing conflict, severe flooding, and rising prices. In Al Fasher, North Darfur, a blockade and continuous fighting have hindered the delivery of essential supplies, leading to alarming rates of acute malnutrition, especially in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs), where levels exceed the Famine threshold (IPC Phase 5).

Many civilians are fleeing nearby IDP camps to seek better protection and services in Zamzam. New assessments from FEWS NET indicate that acute food insecurity is also critical in besieged areas like Dilling and potentially Kadugli in South Kordofan. A significant portion of the population in various regions, including Greater Darfur and parts of Khartoum, faces extreme food shortages.

Recent malnutrition data shows worsening conditions across North, Central, and West Darfur, with seasonal diseases exacerbated by historic rainfall contributing to high malnutrition rates. In several localities, malnutrition levels among children under five have reached alarming rates, with some areas indicating high or extremely critical levels. Although overall mortality rates appear less severe, the ongoing food insecurity and malnutrition are likely to lead to increased hunger-related deaths.

In FEWS NET’s drought-affected countries (excluding the DRC), needs are assessed to be 50 percent higher than the 2023/24 lean season and higher than was estimated during the peak of the last strong El Niño in 2016/17.2 Since November 2023, FEWS NET has warned that the strong El Niño event in 2023/24 would most likely result in drought-induced, below-average 2024 harvests across much of southern Africa, including in two of the region’s key suppliers, South Africa and Zambia. Indeed, a historic dry spell and above-average temperatures in early 2024 led to well below-average maize harvests across the region (Figure 1), ranging from a 10 percent deficit in South Africa to a 60 percent deficit in Zimbabwe compared to their respective five-year averages, according to national government and FEWS NET estimates. As of August, many poor households in the region have either nearly or completely exhausted their stocks from the 2024 harvest and are increasingly resorting to unsustainable coping strategies or experiencing food consumption gaps. Most of Zimbabwe, southern Malawi, southern and central Mozambique, southern Angola, and conflict-affected areas of the DRC are of highest concern. Governments, donors, humanitarian partners, and other stakeholders should rapidly mobilize now to respond to high food assistance needs through early 2025.

With varying degrees of certainty, climate models predict a transition to La Niña conditions during the second half of 2024, which would likely bring below-average rainfall to the eastern Horn of Africa. The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Should below-average rains materialize, crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition are likely. Humanitarian partners should engage with local and national governments to support their contingency planning, the implementation of
preparedness activities and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential below-average rains.

Over twelve months of warfare between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is driving a devastating
deterioration in acute food insecurity across Sudan, and parts of the country face a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Millions of people are experiencing severe hunger, and available evidence suggests high and rising levels of acute malnutrition and hunger-related mortality among internally displaced populations

Attack and suspended humanitarian access underscore risk of Famine in Djibo

Strong El Niño will drive high needs across Southern Africa through early 2025

Strong El Niño event will contribute to high food assistance needs through 2024

The emergency in Ethiopia is far from over, as food aid remains vital to saving lives