Food Prices

Recurring spikes and high volatility in international food and fertilizer prices (Figure 1) have triggered economic impacts around the world over the past two decades. These major shocks include the global food price crises of 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, the market disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war. In the months after Russia’s February 2022 invasion, real global food prices reached the highest levels on record in more than six decades, while key global fertilizer prices more than doubled over those of the previous year.

Figure 1

The FAO Food Price Index declined by 1.6 percent from December. While the Index was 6.2 percent higher than its January 2024 level, it remains 22 percent below its peak of March 2022.

Fertilizer use plays an important role in increasing agricultural production and ensuring food availability and economic accessibility: two critical components of overall food security. When global fertilizer prices skyrocketed in 2021-2022, those spikes brought with them concerns about drastically reduced fertilizer application and subsequent negative impacts on food production, prices, and food security.

In 2024, the FAO Food Price Index was 2.1 percent lower than its 2023 average. While the December 2024 Index was higher than its December 2023 value, it also remained well below the peak prices seen in March 2022.

Rising dairy and vegetable oil prices drove the FAO Food Price Index up by 5.7 percent from November 2023 and to the highest value seen since April 2023. The Index remained more than 20 percent below the peak reached in March 2022, however.