Trade

Over the past two months, India has removed several of its restrictions affecting rice exports, some in place since September 2022. This is welcome news for rice importing countries, which for the past year have had to seek alternative suppliers at significantly elevated prices.

In September, the FAO Food Price Index saw the largest month-on-month increase since May 2022, rising 3 percent from August. While the Index is 2 percent higher than its September 2023 level, it remains over 22 percent below its March 2022 peak.

The FAO Food Price Index declined slightly in August due to falling sugar, meat, and cereal prices. The Index was just over 1 percent lower than its August 2023 value and nearly 25 percent below the peak reached in March 2022.

Declining cereal prices drove the FAO Food Price Index down slightly in July despite increasing vegetable oil, meat, and sugar prices. The Index was 3.1 percent lower than its July 2023 level and nearly 25 percent below the high seen in March 2022.

In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice. Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024.