Market-related

According to the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) Mid-Year Update, the number of people facing or expected to face IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe/Famine) food insecurity more than doubled from 2023 to 2024: from just over 700,000 people to 1.9 million people in four countries/territories. This is the highest number ever recorded by GRFC reporting.

In 2022, Central America experienced significant surge in food prices, a trend that was evident in Honduras. The country saw  year-on-year monthly food inflation exceeding 12% from May 2022 to May 2023, with rates surpassing 17% in eight of those months. 

In the following lines, we address the underlying causes of the food and fertilizer price surges, and the actions that can be taken to mitigate this situation in Central America.

In July 2023, the Indian government announced export restrictions on non-basmati white rice. Coming after earlier export limits on other types of rice, the action was taken in part due to a strengthening El Niño that threatened to limit rice production and fuel rising food inflation—a potential political liability for the Modi government as it faced upcoming general elections in spring 2024.

Recent shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war have disrupted global food and fertilizer supply chains—causing price spikes and increased price volatility—a disastrous combination for many vulnerable consumers around the world.

The FAO Food Price Index rose by nearly 1 percent in May due to increased cereal and dairy prices. It remained 3.4 percent below its May 2023 levels and nearly 25 percent below the peak seen in March 2022.