Food crisis risk monitoring tools

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to expose global food security to high uncertainty, exacerbating already soaring food prices stemming from COVID-19-induced supply disruptions and drought-reduced yields. As seen in past global food price crises, some countries have begun restricting food trade with the objective of controlling domestic food inflation. These restrictions can have dire unintended consequences for vulnerable people in food-importing countries, increasing prices and exacerbating food insecurity.

International food prices are volatile. Prices for major staple crops, like wheat, maize, rice, and oil seeds have suffered major up- and downswings creating uncertain market conditions for farmers and unstable food access for consumers. This international price volatility is disproportionately impacting consumers in low-income countries that are heavily reliant on food imports. The FSP’s Vulnerability to Global Market Shocks V.2: Price Shocks to Major Staple Foods provides new metrics quantifying country-level vulnerability to changes in international prices for major staple crops.

The stock-to-use ratio measures the level of stocks of a commodity relative to its total use, and it is an important indicator of the vulnerability of world food markets to shocks. When stock-to-use ratios are high, more supply is available in inventory, which enables countries to smooth consumption and even out prices in the case of a shock. Low stock-to use ratios increase the severity of price spikes and volatility.

The Food Security Portal's Price Shocks Tool provides an interactive way to explore the impact of price changes on poverty. When you set hypothetical price shock(s) using the tool, net impacts of selected price changes are generated per household and the impact on poverty is automatically calculated accordingly.

As the COVID-19 pandemic spreads, social and economic relief measures—including fiscal stimulus and expansion of social safety nets—are crucial to prevent poverty and hunger from rising dramatically in developing countries.

The control panel for real-time monitoring of risk factors is an innovative tool that brings together information on various drivers of food crises, including conflict and climate-related shocks.

Israel’s continuing attacks against Hamas are causing massive collateral damage to agricultural livelihoods and food supplies in the Gaza Strip. More than one third of agricultural lands in Gaza have been damaged since the outbreak of the war on October 7, 2023, according to analysis based on satellite imagery by the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).