Food price and market monitoring tools

Excessive food price volatility (variability) affects farmers, traders, processors and consumers – and it threatens food security. In the aftermath of the 2007-2008 food price crisis and post-crisis commodity price volatility, the Food Security Portal developed the Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System, which identifies periods of excessive price variability (i.e. price variability that exceeds a pre-established threshold). The instrument serves as an early warning system for unusual periods of excessive price variability.

The stock-to-use ratio measures the level of stocks of a commodity relative to its total use, and it is an important indicator of the vulnerability of world food markets to shocks. When stock-to-use ratios are high, more supply is available in inventory, which enables countries to smooth consumption and even out prices in the case of a shock. Low stock-to use ratios increase the severity of price spikes and volatility.

The Food Price Monitor dashboard is a tool that allows you to keep track of changes in food prices both internationally and domestically. The tool is divided into three sections: international food prices, domestic food prices, and food price determinants.

The Food Price Monitor provides daily updates of prices in wholesale and retail markets for a wide range of food products. Alerts refer to price changes from the start of social distancing measures taken because of COVID-19 and are based on a pre-COVID-19 reference price.

While the impact of rising food prices may be clear, the root causes of such price increases often are not. The role of various short- and long-term factors, such as the growth of commodities futures markets and changing levels of grain stocks, continues to be debated. This tool generates up-to-date media daily analysis of factors that may influence commodity price volatility and food security.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to expose global food security to high uncertainty, exacerbating already soaring food prices stemming from COVID-19-induced supply disruptions and drought-reduced yields. As seen in past global food price crises, some countries have begun restricting food trade with the objective of controlling domestic food inflation. These restrictions can have dire unintended consequences for vulnerable people in food-importing countries, increasing prices and exacerbating food insecurity.

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent fertilizer prices soaring to all-time highs as prices for natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogenous fertilizer production, drove production cutbacks and sanctions and export restrictions disrupted exports. These drivers of market turmoil intensified fears of reduced global food production and higher food prices. While global supply continues to rebound and prices abate, risks linger and monitoring market developments remains key.

The Food Security Portal's Price Shocks Tool provides an interactive way to explore the impact of price changes on poverty. When you set hypothetical price shock(s) using the tool, net impacts of selected price changes are generated per household and the impact on poverty is automatically calculated accordingly.