Lessons from the Ukraine Crisis: New Ebook Released

With the world already reeling from the high food prices and other economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the outbreak of conflict in Ukraine in February 2022 again raised the specter of a major global food security crisis. Since that time, analysis of the extant and potential future impacts of the conflict on food and fuel prices, trade, food security, and poverty has been a primary focus for policymakers, researchers, and development professionals around the world. A new ebook from IFPRI, based on their Ukraine blog and research brief series, brings results of this analysis together to provide an overview of the ongoing crisis: its progression, responses at the international and country levels, and lessons learned to better help the world respond to future food system shocks.

The international price of staple commodities – cereals, fuel, and fertilizers – jumped significantly in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 as exports from the region slowed to a trickle: prices rose 48 percent for cereals, 86 percent for fuel, and 35 percent for fertilizers between the end of 2019 and March 2022. Oilseed prices also rose as demand skyrocketed to take the place of cereal consumption. The situation was further exacerbated by poor weather conditions and subsequent low harvests in other key cereal and oilseed producing countries throughout 2021 and the first half of 2022.

While the price increase came to a halt in mid-2022, those prices stabilized at historically high levels. In addition, the analysis points out that sustained food and fuel price volatility remains a significant risk that will continue to pose food security challenges in the near term. Of particular concern is Russia’s termination of the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023 (the second such withdrawal, with the first occurring in October 2022), which again jeopardizes the export of grain and other agricultural products from Ukrainian ports and could cause further food and fuel price spikes. Populations in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), such as in Africa south of the Sahara, will be hardest hit by continued high and volatile prices.

Global price volatility can also be driven by country-level trade policies such as export bans on staple commodities. Several countries responded to the Ukraine crisis by enacting such policies. While intended to protect domestic food security by keeping food supplies within a country and by insulating domestic markets from international price surges, these policies have been proven to increase volatility on global markets as well as to hurt domestic producers.

The ebook provides several policy recommendations based on the past 18 months of analysis; these lessons learned can help policymakers and development practitioners better respond to the ongoing situation in Ukraine, as well as to future global food security and food price shocks.

First, the research highlights the interwoven nature of the drivers of global food crises. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent disruptions to agricultural and fuel trade may have sparked the most recent spate of high and volatile prices, global food markets were already struggling with the impacts of COVID-19, climate-related extreme weather events, economic recession, and other instances of local and regional conflict. These drivers overlap and build upon one another, and trends suggest that such shocks will only become more common in the future. Policymakers and researchers need to take into account these multiple drivers of global food crisis to enact policies and interventions to address as many as possible.

Second, open trade is key in ensuring food security in the face of conflict and other disruptions. Free trade reduces price volatility and protects vulnerable populations by ensuring they can access food even in times of crisis. This means increasing global cooperation and eliminating harmful trade policies such as food and fuel export restrictions.

Third, investment in sustainable food systems needs to be increased at the country level. This will stimulate production and strengthen and diversify trade, thereby enhancing livelihoods for producers and available supplies for consumers.

Fourth, both immediate and longer-term humanitarian aid is critical. While emergency aid efforts such as food aid are needed in the immediate aftermath of a crisis, countries should also work to build up their social safety net programs such as food or cash transfers. This will help reduce hunger and malnutrition in the longer-term aftermath of a global or local shock. Attention should also be paid to programs that help producers and traders build resilience to food price shocks in order to protect long-term livelihoods and development outcomes.

IFPRI’s analysis continues to draw heavily on the suite of tools and data maintained through the Food Security Portal and developed through funding from FCDO/USAID. These include the FSP’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System, the Fertilizer Dashboard, and the Food and Fertilizer Export Restriction Tracker. In addition, many of the blog posts and briefs included in the new ebook have been cross-posted on the FSP’s own Ukraine blog series and tool repository.